Report Compiled: 2020-05-12

Johns Hopkins Repo Commit: c5f0950 Max Data Date: 2020-05-11

NYT Repo Commit: b761184 Max Data Date: 2020-05-11

This is an automatically generated report containing analyses of the COVID-19 epidemic in Iowa and elsewhere. All models under consideration here are stochastic SEIR compartmental models, fit using Approximate Bayesian Computation using the ABSEIR software for R. Source code available upon request. Questions should be directed to grant-brown@uiowa.edu

There are two general classes of model:

  1. Models which use a single location of mortality data to estimate the epidemic curves
  2. Models which are used to provide informative prior information about the epidemic in Iowa, based on analyses of other locations.

In both cases, we have to make assumptions about the shape of the underlying contact distributions. Namely, can we assume that contact in each location shifted within one week of governmental action, or is the shape of the curve more complex. With that in mind, we look at both types of models. In addition, for the State of Iowa, we consider whether or not it is most reasonable to assume that intervention efforts began on 3-17-2020 or 4-4-2020, which correspond to the emergency declaration and the official closing of schools.

** A huge array of models are presented in this document, and they are not reviewed by our team of experts before posting to this page. Some of these are guaranteed to be inadequate or misleading if interpreted by themselves. These results should be considered raw material for follow-up reporting, investigation, and decision-making.**

R0 Summaries: Single Location Analyses

Mortality Estimates: Single Location Analyses

Here, we present the compared results of analyses of the COVID-19 outbreak in a number of locations. We begin by comparing the estimated posterior distribution of mortality rates in each location.

Model Fit: Single Location Analyses

In the following tabbed sections, we present diverse output from the single location models, including projections over time of the following important quantities:

Illinois

Washington

Minnesota

Iowa (3-17)

Iowa (4-4)

Illinois (Spline Model)

Washington (Spline Model)

Minnesota (Spline Model)

Iowa (3-17, Spline Model)

Iowa (4-4, Spline Model)

Iowa Specific Projections

In the following sections, we apply the estimated intervention intensity from the previous analyses to the situation in Iowa, with the hope that by borrowing information from other locations we can improve the precision of our projections.

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Table of projected mortality by model/assumption

Mortality As Of: Training Location Intervention Date Model Type 10th Percentile 50th Percentile 90th Percentile
2020-06-22 Illinois 04-04-2020 Shift 534.1396 843.6341 1279.9806
2020-06-22 Illinois 04-04-2020 Spline 487.4430 824.5432 1351.1277
2020-06-22 Illinois 03-17-2020 Shift 948.6538 1504.4775 2204.3870
2020-06-22 Illinois 03-17-2020 Spline 537.1383 997.5754 1820.8981
2020-06-22 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 359.8887 593.5145 1703.1349
2020-06-22 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 507.5941 1174.9040 4235.2012
2020-06-22 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 795.8478 1567.2924 3674.6492
2020-06-22 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 706.3045 1265.6142 2351.9684
2020-06-22 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Shift 415.3078 592.5636 901.3881
2020-06-22 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Spline 430.2338 625.1162 1116.1197
2020-06-22 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Shift 903.0413 1284.4347 2450.1949
2020-06-22 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Spline 516.7270 979.3743 1920.3882
2020-06-22 Washington 04-04-2020 Shift 399.2166 566.4487 942.2188
2020-06-22 Washington 04-04-2020 Spline 418.3740 609.9329 1020.7125
2020-06-22 Washington 03-17-2020 Shift 838.2312 1258.1010 2154.2932
2020-06-22 Washington 03-17-2020 Spline 553.5046 930.4669 2849.9690
2020-05-26 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 303.6726 392.7187 528.4120
2020-05-26 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 314.1794 478.1074 642.6582
2020-05-26 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 336.2174 456.6229 644.9789
2020-05-26 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 350.8743 484.7136 604.9919